Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating upheavals for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent writers from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, making it uncertain if and when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any politicians or advocates want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they favour unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a feckless secretary of state who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he said. "One side will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but all factions has possesses valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
